Russia and Iran Strategic Partnership Agreement Part III.

What will be in the Treaty? Predicting its contents

My last two posts focused on the initial 2001 Russia-Iran Treaty on Mutual Relations and the negotiations leading up to the anticipated treaty. This post will focus on the nature of the forthcoming agreement and its contents. I also drafted an outline of what I expect will be included in the Russia-Iran treaty.

I picked this photo because Pezeshkian makes Putin look short and I am sure Putin hates that.

Treaty not a Declaration

So for starters, this is going to be a treaty - not an declaration (декларация). This is probably an important distinction to make even if it is a bit mundane and boring. Russia has several ‘strategic partnership declarations’ but a declaration is generally a non-binding. It usually outlines common intentions, principles, or goals etc. Iran and Russia will sign a treaty (договор) - a legally binding agreement that establishes clear obligations and rights but, most importantly, it requires ratification by their respective parliaments (Duma and Majlis).

• Russia has a 2004 Treaty on Strategic Partnership with Uzbekistan but also a more recent 2022 Declaration on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Uzbekistan. For example, in the more recent declaration between Russia and Uzbekistan, it refers to the 2004 Treaty as its legal basis.

• Russia has a 2018 Declaration on Strategic Partnership between the Russian Federation and the United Arab Emirates but not a treaty.

• The recent Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the Russian Federation and the the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea from June is treaty. In fact, Putin just submitted it to the Duma for ratification in early October.

• Russia has other Strategic Partnership treaties, or at least treaties that mention strategic partnership, with Egypt, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Vietnam, and China (based off of Russia-China Treaty on Good-Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation and also a more recent joint declaration affirming this). Interestingly, I have not been able to find a treaty on strategic partnership with India - just the declaration from 2001.

Timeline of a Treaty

Now that we’ve clarified the key difference between a treaty and a declaration, let’s walk through the treaty process in Russia and examine where the Russia-Iran treaty stands, as well as what to expect moving forward.

• Step 1: In Russia, the treaty process typically begins with negotiations conducted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or other relevant government ministries, depending on the nature of the treaty (e.g., defense, trade). These negotiations took place with their Iranian counterparts from 2019 up until late summer this year.

• Step 2: The Foreign Ministry typically submits the final draft of the treaty to the President for approval. As I mentioned in the post a few days ago, on September 18th, Putin signed the directive to “accept the proposal of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, agreed upon with the relevant federal government bodies and organizations, regarding the signing of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran.” The directive also authorized the Foreign Ministry “to make non-substantive amendments to its draft, during the negotiations for the signing of the aforementioned Treaty”

We are here now: the official signing of the treaty

The official signing will be held in Moscow between Putin and Pezeshkian after the BRICS summit in Kazan. Even when the Treaty is signed, it does not yet have legal force within Russia. It remains a non-binding agreement until it goes through the ratification process. The signed Treaty will then be submitted by the President to the the State Duma for ratification. Same goes for the Majlis in Iran. However, I would not be surprised if the Majlis have some issue over the Treaty and would opt to prolong the process due to the drama that is Iranian politics. Once it is approved, however, it will likely be registered with the United Nations register of treaties (as in the case of their 2001 Treaty).

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What will be in the Treaty?

I initially planned to compare some of Russia’s other bilateral Strategic Partnership treaties, as they tend to follow a familiar framework. However, I'll save that for another post due to space constraints. Russia also has a habit of copying and pasting agreements Eg see the comparison below on Russia’s agreement with China and Iran on international law - only real changes were on the South China Sea.

Russia-China and Russia-Iran declaration on International Law

Predicting the general contents of the Russia-Iran strategic partnership agreement is not really that difficult of a task. These agreements are typically vague and follow a similar format. If unilateral coercive measures or polycentric/multipolarity isn’t in the text, I will consider myself to be a failed specialist on the topic.

What I will be looking out for is the level of defense commitments, any interesting bilateral commissions, or cooperation in areas like space. For me, what will be more interesting will be reading in-between the lines of possible cooperation. Here is what I would imagine would be in the one between Iran and Russia, I might be wrong on certain points but this is what I would envision.

Preamble

• Building on the historical ties of good neighborly relations, mutual respect, and non-interference

• Something about the polycentric world order and the need to strengthen strategic cooperation in the face of emerging security, and economic challenges;

• Something about significant progress in bilateral relations, particularly in the fields of defense, trade, energy, scientific collaboration, cybersecurity, and regional stability;

• Commitment to the principles of sovereign equality, mutual respect, and non-interference in internal affairs, as enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and other fundamental norms of international law;

• Desiring to elevate their relationship to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership that reflects the deepening cooperation across political, military, economic, and cultural spheres;

• Shared goal of promoting regional peace, stability, and security, and their opposition to unilateral sanctions, external interference, and destabilizing actions by external actors;

• Collaborate more closely on the basis of mutual interest in addressing global and regional security threats, including terrorism, extremism, unilateral coercive measures, and cyber threats (if unilateral coercive measures is not in this agreement I will be so disappointed)

Comprehensive Strategic Partnership

• Same language used in almost every Russian treaty

• The Contracting Parties elevate their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership, built on on the basis of sovereign equality, cooperation, mutual trust, respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence, and non-interference in each other's internal affairs.

• The Parties will expand their political, economic, military, security, and cultural cooperation across multiple domains, aiming for long-term stability and the development of both nations.

Political and Diplomatic Dialogue

• The Contracting Parties will institutionalize regular high-level political dialogue, including meetings between the Presidents of both countries, with the participation of senior officials from the ministries of foreign affairs, defense, economy, and security.

• Maybe a mention to the Russia-Iran Joint Economic Council, existing bilateral cooperation like Joint Military-Technical Commision

• Regular consultations will in multilateral organizations such as the United Nations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, 3+3 etc

Non-Interference, Security, and Defense Cooperation

• Commitment to joint security and the protection of their national sovereignty, agreeing to enhance military-technical cooperation, including joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and the development of defensive capabilities.

• Russia and Iran will not join or form alliances that are aimed at undermining the sovereignty, security, or territorial integrity of the other Party.

• Not to allow their territories to be used by third states for any actions or purposes that may undermine the sovereignty or security of the other Party.

• MAYBE In the event of an imminent threat of armed aggression against one of the Parties, the Parties, at the request of the threatened Party, shall promptly activate bilateral communication channels to conduct urgent consultations. These consultations will aim to coordinate their positions and explore practical measures to address the emerging threat, including offering diplomatic, logistical, or other forms of assistance in accordance with international law and the UN Charter. (This is similar to Russia-China and Russia-Mongolia)

• If Iran gets this clause like the DPRK Treaty, that would be a very big deal. In the event that one of the Parties is subjected to an armed attack by another State or group of States, the other Party shall engage in consultations to provide support in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter. This may include appropriate assistance, considering the capacity of each Party, and in line with their respective national legislation and international commitments. However, the part with respective national legislation is a cop-out the Russians use because they could argue that it is not in accordance with national law.

Economic Cooperation and Energy Development

• Expanding bilateral trade and investment cooperation, particularly in the fields of energy, infrastructure, and transportation.

• Collaboration on oil and gas projects, with an emphasis on joint exploration and production.

• Economic cooperation or some a joint investment fund to support infrastructure projects in both countries, including transportation corridors connecting Iran and Russia - something on INSTC eg improving shipping routes and logistics infrastructure, including through the INTSC.

• Cooperation in the nuclear energy sector will be further developed, including joint research on the peaceful use of nuclear energy and the exchange of technological expertise.

• Something on grain/wheat eg enhance trade in agricultural products, including wheat, ensuring food security.

• Promoting financial cooperation aimed at reducing reliance on the US dollar in bilateral trade and economic transactions. They will pursue the use of national currencies.

Scientific, Technological, and Cyber Cooperation

• Collaborate in science and technology.

• Cooperation in the healthcare sector, including the exchange of expertise in medical sciences, public health, and the development of pharmaceutical industries

• Cooperation in cyber defense, focusing on protecting critical infrastructure and combatting cybercrime.

• Building on their information security agreement, Russia and Iran will engage in regular cybersecurity dialogue, intelligence sharing, and joint exercises to bolster their cyber defenses and combat cybercrime more effectively.

• Opportunities for space cooperation eg exchange of expertise in satellite technology, space research, and space infrastructure development.

United Nations/Multilateralism/Unilateral Coercive Measures

• Strongly oppose the use of unilateral coercive measures by any state or group of states, which they deem to be illegal, counterproductive, and a violation of the UN Charter and international law. Such measures, including economic sanctions, trade embargoes, and other forms of external pressure, are inconsistent with the principles of sovereign equality and non-interference, and pose a serious threat to global economic stability and human rights.

• Immediate lifting of unilateral sanctions imposed outside UNSC, and for the international community to recognize the adverse humanitarian impacts of such measures.

• Coordinate their diplomatic efforts at the UN and other multilateral forums to condemn and work towards eliminating the use of unilateral coercive measures, and to promote a multilateral system that fosters dialogue and negotiation as the means to resolve international disputes.

Cultural and Educational Cooperation

• Cultural exchanges and the mutual learning of the Russian language in Iran and the Persian language in Russia, alongside increased cooperation between universities, research institutions, and cultural centers.

• Deepen cooperation through regular cultural exchanges, and interfaith dialogue; united against external efforts to impose cultural and ideological hegemony that threatens to undermine their civilizational identities

• Tourism through the simplification of visa regimes and the promotion of cultural heritage tourism in both countries.

Environmental Protection

• Maybe something on the Caspian Sea like the parties will work together on environmental protection, sustainable development, and management of shared resources such as the Caspian Sea.

Possible Clause on the Caspian Sea Treaty

• Russia and Iran reaffirm their commitment to the Caspian Sea’s unique legal status as governed by the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed by the littoral states in 2018 -specifically prohibit foreign military forces from accessing the Caspian region.

• Caspian belongs exclusively to the five littoral states and agree that the management of its resources and security must be handled solely by these state

Potentially terrorism and customs

• Joint efforts to combat terrorism, extremism, transnational crime, and human trafficking.

• Customs cooperation to prevent illicit trade and ensure secure borders.

Updating Treaty

From the date of entry into force of this Treaty, the Treaty of Mutual Relations between the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran shall cease to be in effect.

Renewal of Treaty/Enforcement

Treaty will be in force for 20 years, with automatic renewal every 5 years.

Maybe something on dispute mechanisms, it will also include a provision on ratification.

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That’s all I have to say for now, I will probably post some updates on the BRICS summit and then do a deep-dive into the Treaty once it is published.